Ekonom senior yang juga merupakan mantan menteri keuangan, M. Chatib Basri mengungkapkan desain kebijakan fiskal yang kuat sangat diperlukan ke depannya. Hal ini ditegaskannya guna menjaga pergerakan rupiah ke depannya.
Chatib mengungkapkan alasan mengapa rupiah terdepresiasi hingga Rp 16.402 terhadap dolar AS sekitar sebulan yang lalu.
“Ini karena pasar gelisah dengan penerbitan obligasi yang signifikan untuk mengubah profil utang,” kata Chatib Basri dalam Seminar ISEAS, dikutip Kamis (22/8/2024).
Pada 2025, utang jatuh tempo pemerintahan baru mencapai Rp 700 triliun. Utang jatuh tempo yang besar ini akan berlangsung sejak 2025-2029. Rata-rata nilai utang jatuh tempo mencapai Rp 500 triliun dalam lima tahun ke depan.
“Jadi ini benar-benar masalah dari pasar, karena mereka akan berharap bahwa mungkin imbal hasil obligasi akan meningkat, Bukan? Jadi akan ada tekanan,” ujar Chatib.
“Jadi itulah mengapa desain kebijakan fiskal sangat penting jika tidak akan ada implikasi atau stabilitas pasar keuangan,” ujarnya.
Mengutip data profil jatuh tempo utang Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko (DJPPR) Kementerian Keuangan, utang jatuh tempo pada 2024 sendiri sebesar Rp 434,29 triliun, terdiri dari yang dalam bentuk Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) Rp 371,8 triliun, dan pinjaman Rp 62,49 triliun.
Sedangkan, pada 2025 menjadi Rp 800,33 triliun, terdiri dari SBN Rp 705,5 triliun dan pinjaman Rp 94,83 triliun. Pada 2026 sebesar Rp 803,19 triliun, terbagi menjadi SBN Rp 703 triliun dan pinjaman Rp 100,19 triliun, serta pada 2027 menjadi Rp 802,61 triliun, terdiri dari SBN Rp 695,5 triliun dan pinjaman Rp 107,11 triliun.
Pada 2028, utang jatuh tempo menjadi hanya sebesar Rp 719,81 triliun yang terdiri dari SBN Rp 615,2 triliun dan pinjaman Rp 104,61 triliun, dan 2029 kembali turun menjadi Rp 622,3 triliun, terdiri dari utang jatuh tempo dalam bentuk SBN sebesar Rp 526,1 triliun dan pinjaman sebesar Rp 96,2 triliun.
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